Sales Forecasting Reference Data

The application provides additional features and a range of historical statistical data to assist in the development of a sales forecast.

The source of the values presented in this screen are determined by the “Sales Forecasting Based On” setting in the Recommended Order Setup screen – either ‘Menu Mix (Recipe Sales)’ or ‘Sales Mix (Register Sales)’.

If set for ‘Sales Mix (Register Sales)’, then the application will refer to register sales data (visible in the Enter Sales Transactions screen), along with outgoing Commissary Orders and Customer Orders, as the data source for calculating historical and projected sales. The application will also use register sales as a source for determining “Redistribute Forecasted Totals by Daypart” percentages.
If set for ‘Menu Mix (Recipe Sales)’, then the application will refer to sales of recipe items via a POS system as the data source for calculating historical and projected sales. The application will also use menu mix sales data as a source for determining “Redistribute Forecasted Totals by Daypart” percentages.

Hyperlinked Dates and Values

Calendar Details – If a date has one or more records in the location’s “Scheduled Closed”, “Promotions” or “Holiday” Calendar(s), the date will be a hyperlink, allowing the user to open a pop-up window displaying the relevant calendar listings. Also, if a date has a record in the location’s “Scheduled Closed Calendar”, the application will display “Closed” in the window label. These notices will also display in the Forecasted Sales by Daypart and Revenue Center pop-up window.
Sales Details – If a Reference Data value has one or more “Temperature”, “Weather”, “Event”, or “Manager Notes” entries in the Enter Sales Transactions screen for a particular date, or if the date has one or more records in the location’s “Promotions” or “Holiday” Calendar(s), the value will be a hyperlink allowing the user to open a pop-up window displaying the relevant listings.

Current Week

Current Week’s Actuals — (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays the actual data for each date and the total up to the current date.
Avg. Sales per Guest/Check — Displays "Avg. Sales per Guest" if "Display check count data" is not enabled in the Recommended Order Setup screen; displays "Avg. Sales per Check" if "Display check count data" is enabled. This is calculated as [ Actual Sales ÷ Guests/Checks ]

Historical and Projected Data

AI Forecast (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays projected forecast data calculated using Crunchtime's custom-built machine learning algorithm. The AI Forecast is tailored to your specific operation and location, and automatically selects the most relevant data points to ensure maximum accuracy.
Budgeted Sales — Displays the total Budgeted Sales for the week and budgeted values for each day, calculated by multiplying the total by the day’s “Projected Sales %” value.
Projected (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays projected forecast data calculated based on the “Current/Historical” and “Sales Forecasting Based On” settings in the Recommended Order Setup screen.
Last Week’s Forecast (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays the forecast data saved in the Sales Forecasting screen for the previous post period. Also includes Avg. Sales per Check and Last Week's Weather (High & Low temp, the day's weather icon, and a "More" button to show details in 3-hour increments).
Actuals for Week Ending {Date} (Sales/Guests/Checks)— Displays the total actual sales for the same day of the week in a previous “week”, based on the location’s “Offset for previous week’s actuals” setting.
4 Week Avg. through {Date} (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays the averaged actual sales for the same day of the week in 4 consecutive recent weeks, based on the location’s “Offset for previous week’s actuals” setting.
Historical Actuals for {Date} (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays the total actual sales for the same day of the week in the selected historical period. Also includes Avg. Sales per Check and Last Year's Weather (High & Low temp, the day's weather icon, and a "More" button to show details in 3-hour increments). {Note}: If necessary, click the label hyperlink to open a pop-up to choose a different period.
Year-over-Year Trend (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays the “Last Year’s Actuals” value adjusted by a growth factor; calculated as [ Last Years Actuals x (this year's “4 Week Avg.” ÷ last year's “4 Week Avg.”) ] for the same relative period, based on the Reporting Calendar. {Note}: The "last year" 4-week average is based on as many weeks (up to 4) as have data, even if not all weeks in the current 4-week period have data.
Imported (Sales/Guests/Checks) — Displays the forecast data imported via the Crunchtime Data Pump. This is only visible for weeks that have imported data.

Each of the rows above has [>] (Expand) and [V] (Collapse) controls to the left of each label, to show or hide the Guest/Check rows.

“Auto-Fill” command buttons

The values used to pre-populate the forecast data fields are based on the "Default based on" setting selected in the Recommended Order Setup screen. Under Historical and Projected Data, an "Auto-Fill" command button will appear to the right of each label for the following Reference Data calculations when data exists for them. Clicking this button will allow you to overwrite the forecast data for each day with the values from that row.

Budgeted Sales
Projected
Last Week's Forecast
Actuals for Week Ending {Date}
4 Week Average thru {Date}
Historical Actuals for {Date}
Year-over-Year Trend

The label for the values used to populate the forecast data will be displayed in blue text.

Daypart Forecasts

Forecasted Sales by Daypart — Displays the weekly total, the calculated forecasted total (the sum of the dayparts) for each day, and the difference between the entered and calculated forecasted sales, which = [ Total Forecasted Sales – Calculated Forecasted Sales by Daypart ]. When visible, also displays the subtotal by daypart, the editable forecast by daypart, and the percent of the total.
Forecasted Guests by Daypart — Displays the weekly total, the calculated forecasted total (the sum of the dayparts) for each day, and the difference between the entered and calculated forecasted guests, which = [ Total Forecasted Guests – Calculated Forecasted Guests by Daypart ]. When visible, also displays the subtotal by daypart, the editable forecast by daypart, and the percent of the total.
Forecasted Checks by Daypart — Displays the weekly total, the calculated forecasted total (the sum of the dayparts) for each day, and the difference between the entered and calculated forecasted checks, which = [ Total Forecasted Checks – Calculated Forecasted Checks by Daypart ]. When visible, also displays the subtotal by daypart, the editable forecast by daypart, and the percent of the total.

Each of the rows above has [>] (Expand) and [V] (Collapse) controls the left of each label, to show or hide the Daypart details. When displayed, a user may edit these values manually or by using the “Forecasted Sales by Daypart and Revenue Center” pop-up window. Any change to the Forecasted Sales/Guest/Checks will automatically recalculate and redistribute across Dayparts. Any change to a Daypart's forecast will automatically recalculate and redistribute across Revenue Centers.